Ray Allen Trade Reax

You know how the morning after you go out hard, one of those "5-jager-bomb-in-20-minutes" nights, you not only feel like you are going to barf, but it hurts to blink. That sort of thing. Well, that was my initial reaction to the Ray Allen trade last night.

I actually had this conversation last night with RJ

Me: "You are not going to fucking believe this. The C's are going to trade the No. 5 pick overall, Delonte West, and Szczerbiak for Ray Allen."

RJ: "Oooo. Hmm. That's not good."

Me: "I can't fucking believe this team! I need to start drinking heavily."

After I slammed a few more Sam Adams Summer Ale's to temper my mood, and few more inflammatory remarks about the Celtics to Haskins, I slowly came around A BIT on the trade. Here's a look at the pros and cons, and the ultimate conclusion on how to actually grade the Celtics moves on Trade Night. Given my pessimism for this team, lets look at the cons first.

CONS

(1) The Celtics just traded for a soon-t0-be 32 year old shooting guard entering his 12th NBA Season. Just that alone should make the butthole pucker

(2) The Celtics weren't a great offensive team last year, but not horrible (only 95.8 PPG, or 1 full PPG less than a team that drew up their plays in the dirt with Al Roker as coach...for the slow of thought, the NBA Finalist Cavs). However, they gave up 99.2 PPG, and had an awfully stinky turnover differential. So, the obvious solution is trade for a 32 year old, extremely below average defender with a below average-to-average handle. Is it too late to switch fan bases?

(3) Between Allen and Pierce, the C's have now allocated $128 million over the next 4 years to two players that will be 30+ next season ($52 mill/3 years for Allen and $76 mill/4 years for Pierce). And these salaries are not "phantom" money, with team or player options. Mind you, when the 2009-2010 season rolls around, the C's will be paying about $40 million that year to a 34 year old SG and 32 SF. That's the basketball equivalent of paying Pacino $15 million per movie nowadays under the hopes that he'll revert back to the days when he, you know, knew how to act.

(4) The Celtics long-term strategy is like Joakim Noah - (1) very little aesthetic appeal (although this might not do justice to how ugly Noah is - he looks like if the character from "Mad" magazine and one of the members of Bone Thugs-N-Harmony had a kid, and then peed on it); (2) like his teeth, has a huge gap in it; and (3) tough to understand. Since Ainge took over as Executive Director of Basketball Operations for the C's in 2003, here's what he brokered - He got rid of Antoine Walker because we couldn't win a championship with him and Pierce (netting Raef LaFrentz), brought back Antoine Walker to pair with Pierce, Davis, and LaFrentz to win the Atlantic in 2004-05, traded away Davis and Blount to get Szczerbiak and go with the youth movement in 2005-06, and is now bringing in Allen and his broken ankles to pair with Pierce. Look, I'll give Ainge his due in that he has an eye for talent in the draft...but so does Isiah Thomas, and we all know were that got him. Either go with the youth movement, or trade the pups to bring in veterans. But this constant flip-flop irritates me more than listening to Hillary Clinton.

(5) The worst part of the trade is the "what could have been" factor. If Ainge had held on to his pick last year, and didn't trade away the 5th pick this year, here is a quick look at the C's Roster

PG: Rondo/Gabe Pruitt/Delonte West/Dan Dickau (probably bagging groceries and not on the roster)
SG: Brandon Roy or Randy Foye/Tony Allen
SF: Paul Pierce/Jeff Green/Gerald Green
PF: Al Jefferson/Ryan Gomes/Raef LaFrentz/Leon Powe (released)
C: Kendrick Perkins

The salary for this hypothetical team is roughly the same for the current roster for 2007-08, and they also have the bargaining chip of LaFrentz's contract coming off the books next year, along with West and Gerald Green. Combining LaFrentz's contract with, say, Gerald Green nets you a pick for a big man. In theory, this team wins now, and only has Pierce's albatross of a contract for the future. Excuse me while I hit myself over the head with a frying pan.

Now that I've taken you down the doldrums of despair, let's start repairing the view of this deal.

PROS

(1) Between Allen and Pierce last year, when these guys made it to the court, they still played at an All-Star level. Combined from the 2 and 3 spots, their per game averages were: 51 PPG, 10.5 RB, 8.2 Ast, 44% from the field, 38% from 3 and roughly 85% from the FT line. That is dynamite production from two players - arguably one of the 2-3 most productive tandems in the league, and by the far the most potent in the East. Both will most likely take statistical hits playing with a fellow Alpha Dog, but the production is obviously still there despite age concerns.

(2) Allen gets his points off his silky smooth jumper (one of my buddies described as a "KY Jumper", and damnit I like it). If he was a slasher (like Pierce), they tend to decline in production the older they get. This makes sense as they loose the first step, injuries take a toll, etc. But Allen's game should translate into solid production into his 30s.

(3) Allen is a significant improvement at the 2 guard spot for the C's. With all due respect to Tony Allen and his "Darwin Award" dunks, Ray Allen at 32 is better than Tony Allen on his best day...at least offensively. Most importantly, he gives them a legitimate 3 point threat to take the pressure of Big Al, who saw nothing but double and triple teams once Pierce went down. With Pierce and Allen on the floor at the same time (I'm praying to the health gods as I type this), and a penetrating (hold your giggles), drive and dish PG like Rondo, it will give Big Al an extra second to work on the block in single coverage.

(4) The part of the deal that was first overlooked was the inclusion of the #35 pick in draft, which netted Glen "Big Baby" Davis. Davis is a legit first round talent, and would have been a sure fire lottery pick if he came out last year. He is, based on a rough statistical analysis and a complicated algorithm I created, 2000% more athletic than he looks. He has a polished offensive repertoire, offensively rebounds very well, passes well from the block, and couldn't guard a meatball sandwich (insert your fat joke here). He's basically a poor man's Al Jefferson, but with way more unintentional comedy. All kidding aside, however, when playing the small lineup, this gives the C's a chance to play Jefferson and Davis with Pierce, Allen and Rondo, which could score at will against most teams in the East. Defensively....HEY! This is the pros section, remember? OK, now to the biggest benefit of them all....

(5) For the East, this is a playoff team. In the interest of frank disclosure, I want to let everyone know something: The Eastern Conference sucks...really bad...and its only getting worse. The NBA has one legitimate free agent (Billups), and he was already in the East to begin with. Barring 2-3 trades that bring significant superstars to the Eastern Conference, let's take a quick look at how the East will stack up next year:

1. Detroit - Billups may come back, but RJ is right...this team is on the fast track towards becoming the Sacremento Kings...minus owners that bang Vegas hookers and overpublicize themselves.

2. Cleveland - They definitely improved since getting swept in the Finals...and by improved, I mean they did nothing. 45-50 win team based on Lebron alone.

3. Toronto - Basically a watered down version of Phoenix, which is exciting to watch..but who plays defense?

4. Miami - If Shaq and Wade are healthy, good for a top 4 seed next season, but who distributes the ball? Here's hoping that those kids teach Shaq how to get in shape...wait, HE'S the one helping the KIDS get in shape? I didn't realize this was a comedic reality show.

5. Chicago - They still have absolutely nobody to score down low, and picking Noah was like picking a poor man's Tyrus Thomas, if the poor man was taller and waaay more atrocious looking. Paxson needs to make a trade for a low post scorer.

6. New Jersey - Could be really good if: (1) Sean Williams doesn't get banned for smoking up during a TV timeout; (2) Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson can turn back the clock 4 years; and (3) Mikki Moore continues to sell his soul for NBA effectiveness. I have my doubts.

7. Washington - I'm sure Hibachi will play well, given its a contract year, but this team plays less defense than the C's.

8. Orlando - Dwight Howard is awesome. What? There are actually other players on this team? I'm sure signing Darko to $60 million will make sense.

9. Indiana - This team is awful...and that's before they trade Jermaine O'Neal.

10. Philly - Really good draft, but this team is a year away...which means Billy King will do something to screw this up in the next 6 months.

11. Charlotte - Michael Jordan is just the next of a long line of former NBA superstars who think they know what they are doing in an NBA front office, but end up trashing their teams (although I think trading Brandon Wright works b/c (1) he'll be a bust; and (2) at least Richardson gives them wing offense). Hey, speaking of atrocious GMs...

12. New York - ...Isiah Thomas Ladies and Gentlemen! I love how everyone is all on board with this Zach Randolph trade when they overlook two things: (1) Randolph is bound to cause Eddy Curry a heart attack after both polish off a crave case at 3 AM; (2) if (1) doesn't happen, these are two of the most immature players in the league, and virtual clones on the court. How do they co-exist? This team is still not very good.

13. Atlanta - GM Billy Knight did a great job of two things Thursday night: (1) looking like a homeless person in his interview; and (2) not screwing up. A lineup of Law, Johnson, Marvin Williams, Al Horford and Pachullia is as atheltic as it gets....but they are still 1-2 years away (which gives Knight time to screw it up).

14. Milwaukee - Yi should mesh well with all those Chineese in Milwaukee. Good luck getting him signed.

15. Boston - I'm not saying that the C's are going to run through the East, but a starting lineup of Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Jefferson, Perkins, with Gabe Pruitt, Allen, Gerald Green, Big Baby and Gomes off the bench has as much athelticism as any team in the East. This team could give up 120 points on any given night, but they will at least be competitive. Remember, the C's were a .500 team when Pierce and Jefferson were healthy last year, and Allen improves this team in the short term.

END RESULT: Depends. If you want the Celtics to just get back to the playoffs, its a good move. In the short term, this team will be competitive and, maybe more importantly for Ainge's sake, relevant. In the long term, however, Ainge's moves significantly cripple this team going forward, particulary in the 2008-2010 period. I want rings, and this team won't win one.