Over the past ten days or so, more than a few people asked my thoughts about the Sox12 1/2 game lead over the Yankees. Were the Yankees finished? Was this 1978 all over again? Would the stories of A-Rod snorting coke off a stripper's ass finally come to light? The questions came from all sorts of angles.
The time seemed appropriate to let off on my first Red Sox-only post of the 2007 season. With the best record in MLB, I have avoided writing an article for one, and only one, basis alone - to not jinx the flow they had going. However, with a recent 4-6 stretch, capped off by scoring a total of 7 runs in 4 games in Oaktown, the jinx-factor reduced to an acceptable level.
As I noted in my 50 observations of the MLB season at the quarter mark, this Red Sox team is reeeally good - outstanding starting pitching (which will only get better when Jon Lester replaces Julian Tavarez), a surprisingly effective bullpen anchored by "the Papelbon" (he needs a "the" in front of his name) and Okajima (who totally needs a cool nickname...something like the "Tropical Cyclone"), and a lineup that has picked up Manny and Ortiz in large part due to the support by gritty, old-school throwbacks like Youkilis, Lowell, Pedroria. They've scored the 4th most runs in the AL, given up the second least, and have (with the exception of the dump-a-thon the last four games) beaten the best along the way (8-2 against Cleveland, Detroit and Anaheim, and 7-5 against the Devil's Love Child).
With about a 100 games to go, this team still remains the team to beat....which means about as much as Paris Hilton's now non-existent prison sentence or a Billy Donovan contract.
Look, I'm not a "the sky is falling" type of Boston sports...at least not anymore. The run of the Patriots, and the magic of the 2004 BoSox season inspired a bit of optimism in my Boston sports outlook. However, I have a too many heartbreaks with Boston teams to count, and you have very little chance of getting me comfortable with Fox, ESPN and every other sports networking effectively praying that the Devil's Love Child overcome this deficit and someone along the lines of Josh Phelps gets to play the role of Bucky Fucking Dent.
While I think this Sox teams remains the team to beat, this squad clearly has flaws. Lets take a look at the top 10 flaws on the 2007 BoSox:
(1) Julio Lugo. Their leadoff hitter is barely hitting his weight...and he ain't fat. Julio Lugo has a batting average of .217, an OBP of .277 and his defense brings back more memories of E-E-Edgar Renteria than Alex Gonzalez. He has contributed in other ways (17 steals, 33 RBIs...or one more than Manny), but that $8.25 million is starting to look like Harold Ramis paying Jackie Mason for Caddyshack 2. You know what...that's a little bit strong....come to think of it, that award goes to...
(2) J.D. Drew! Fans of Red Sox Nation, pat yourselves on the back, because when you were busying creating a petition to stop the front office from signing this injury-plagued beauty, the front office plugged alone. And what is the return on their $14.4 million dollar investment for 2007? .224 Avg, .342 OBP, .309 Slugging %, 2 HRs (or half of Wily Mo Pena's 2007 total) and 17 RBIs (or half of your .217 hitting leadoff hitter). "Santa with Muscles" was a better idea than this. Shit, Tito pinch hit for Drew with a guy who I thought wouldn't hit his weight this year (Varitek) this past week. Good times.
(3) Hideki Okajima. The "Tropical Cyclone" is bound to lose his effectiveness. I love this guy - the whole contorted delivery, the fact that he doesn't look at the plate when he throws, and that he has cohunas the size of Okinawa. But he throws 86-88 mph, and when he's not hitting his spots, good hitters will tee off on him (see Cano, Robinson). The feeling I get when he comes in reminds me too much of Keith Foulke.
(4) Coco Crisp. Yeah, Theo...that was a great signing...really hit a home run with that one. I'm fully convinced we could put RJ in Coco's place and it would increase the offensive production of our centerfield spot. There is no way this is the same guy that hit 31 home runs and .300 over his last two years in Cleveland. I think Cleveland told the Sox they were sending Coco, when they really stuffed him a basement somewhere and traded his twin brother Mocoa...it's kind of like how when you get Chineese food, the restaurant tells you that you are ordering pork, when its really high grade dog meat.
(5) Theo Epstein is overrated. There I said it, and the Heavens didn't smite me. Theo's legacy is tied to the fact he had the, ahem, testicular fortitude to make the Garciaparra trade during the 2004 season, which led to the late season World Series run. I am forever grateful for that, but lets look at his major moves over the last few years (in no particular order):.
(1) signed Dice-K - he is a great pitcher, but you don't throw around $103 million for a 4.63 ERA; (2) the Crisp, Lugo and Drew signings (tackled fully above); (3) Donnelly, Pinero and Romero as the bullpen fixtures - people forget this because the Papelbon volunteered to go back to the closer's role and Okajima has been 275% better than anyone anticipated, but one of these three guys would have been Boston's closer...wow; (4) not trading Delcarmenn and/or Hansen for Todd Helton or Jake Peavy...two non-moves that will haunt me all season; (5) trading Cla Meredith for a bag onions, only to watch him become one of the top relievers in the NL last season; (6) the Renteria signing; (7) letting Damon walk - while not necessarily a bad personnel move, he was absolutely killed by his fan base for letting him go to NY; and (8) Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena - yup, that seemed fair.
I'm holding off on the Beckett/Lowell for Ramirez/Sanchez trade because, at this moment, the Sox hold the edge. But keep something in mind - Epstein is lucky that Lowell has produced because NOBODY wanted him and his $9 million a year salary. The point is, I just don't think he is the GM wizard everyone else does, and at the trade deadline, when he's not ready to throw in David Murphy in a trade to get a good corner outfield bat, his focus on keeping a stockpile of young talent in the minors will not help them win this year (the only year any Red Sox fan cares about).
(6) Josh Beckett has been a cross between Superman, Batman, and George Clooney this year, but (1) will his tender wittle finger hold up over 33 starts?; and (2) how are the Red Sox going to fare when he goes 1-2 with a 7.35 ERA over 4 starts? Scary thought.
(7) Curt Schilling was masterful against the A's yesterday, and I honestly wanted to John Hinckley Shannon Stewart for the two-out single. An absolute unbelievable performance at the best time, considering my softball league team can put more runs on the board than the Sox right now. But can the Sox expect 18 wins from a 40 year pitcher? Will he be able to stop a losing streak like that in August? Too many questions to make me comfortable.
(8) The Devil's Love Child played awful baseball from mid-April through the end of May. Putrid. Horrific. Toss in any one of the "really stinky" adjectives in here. But they are playing better of late - 6-4 in their last ten, following taking 4 of 6 against the good guys, and players like Abreu and Cano are starting to get hot. While Mike Mussina looks like father throwing knuckle scroogies out in the driveway to me when I was 7, Wang + Pettite + Clemens + that lineup = enough to not make me forget that they are there...even if they are 10.5 games behind on June 8.
(9) Injuries, or lack thereof. The Sox have avoided major injuries over the course of the first two months, with the exception of Beckett missing two starts and Nancy Drew missing a few games with a hamstring. Over 162 games, as Lou Brown says, even tough players get sprains. We'll see how it plays out.
(10) Big Leads. Nothing gets a fan more nervous than the thought of their team being remembered as one that collapsed. Like the Angels when the Mariners overtook them in 1995, or when the White Sox fanbase was having a core meltdown in 2005 as the "other Sox" made it interesting with their ineptitude down the stretch, this has me worried - and the last ten games did nothing to ease this feeling.
The Red Sox have the best record in the majors, a double digit lead almost a third of the way through June in their division, are a strong squad (generally) from 1-25, and have the resources and pieces to make moves at the trade deadline if needed. What, me nervous? Maybe a little.