It terrifies me to put this down in writing because after the first two picks this thing looks wide open. I'm sure a number of last minute trades will also screw this up, but I'll give it a shot:
#1 - Portland: Greg Oden. I've read a couple articles saying that Portland can't pass up on Kevin Durant because his potential is unlimited. This isn't a Sam Bowie/Michael Jordan situation however. Moreover, no one ever talks about Houston passing on Jordan with the first pick in that draft. Why? Because they took Hakeen Olajuwon. Oden is another David Robinson. There is no question about this pick.
#2 - Seattle: Kevin Durant. Highest ceiling in the entire draft. Could very easily be a Tracy McGrady-type scorer who can rebound.
#3 - Atlanta: Al Horford. Horford is the most NBA-ready prospect in the draft. Atlanta deserperately needs a point guard, but its too high to take Mike Conley and they have a pick at eleven to burn on whomever they choose. Choosing Horford basically makes the selection of Sheldon Williams (earlier than he should have gone) last year worthless. Whatever. If Williams can't move the dangerous Zaza Pachulia to 4 - the bench it was an error anyway. Being the Hawks...I'm guessing they just take another shooting guard/small forward.
#4 - Memphis: Mike Conley. After saying that #3 is too high to draft Conley, I have him going at #4. Damon Stoudemire is WAY too old. Conley joins a starting lineup (including Mike Miller, Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrack, & Pau Gasol) with a lot of talent...but not a lot of winning.
#5 - Boston: Yi Jianlian. I know its pretty much everyone in Boston's worst nightmare which means its going to happen. It seems like the C's are in a very interesting position where they have some "potential" players at the guard spots (Rondo & Green) and don't appear like they want to stunt their growth despite the fact there are clear upgrades available (Corey Brewer specifically). So they take a seven-footer with some athleticism (at least in one-man workouts) and a decent jump shot. If it works out he takes away a big from double teaming Al Jefferson down low. Either way Yi looked really good dunking in scrimages on Court 3 of the CCRB.
#6 - Milwaukee: Corey Brewer. Obvious up-grade over Desmond Mason (who is a free agent). The Bucks should allow Brewer to guard the oppositions best scorer and let Michael Redd do what he does best (aside from losing hair): just freakin shoot.
#7 - Minnesota: Jeff Green. Who knows what happens here with KG on the trading block. Green doesnt have the ceiling that Brandon Wright has, but is assuredly more polished and ready to log serious NBA minutes right now. In reality though...what does it matter with a roster as crappy as Minnesota's? With the exception of KG and the overacheiving Craig Smith there is nobody there.
#8 - Charlotte: Brandon Wright. Absolutely a gift for the Bobcats at #8. One of those guys who has a ton of talent but lots of questions about his laid-back attitude and desire. Maybe this selection will get Shaun May on a treadmill. Maybe not.
#9 - Chicago: Spencer Hawes. The smart choice for the Bulls. Hawes is a guy with a great low-post repetoire (basically the reciprocal of Ben Wallace). If he is even mildly effective in the post, the Bulls guards should have much easier time getting off outside shots. Not sure if that is necessarily a good thing (see Ben Gordon in the playoffs), but Hawes exactly what the Bulls lack.
#10 - Sacramento: Joakim Noah. Very good value for the Kings with this pick and the Kings need all the help they can get. As an aside...I'm terrified that the Pistons are going to eventually evolve into the Kings. Perrenial contenders once. Now just a bunch of aging players in the final years of their contract that have become WAY too big for their present value (Miller/Bibby/etc).
#11 - Atlanta: Acie Law. Like I said before: the Hawks need a point guard and the best value for one is at #11 with Law. He's not the distributer that Mike Conley is, but is a more capable scorer and is ready to walk right into the starting PG spot for the next seven years for Atlanta.
#12 - Philadelphia: Julian Wright. Best player on the board. Wright has been defined as a jack-of-all-trades player and those skills will come in handy for a Sixer team that needs just about everything. I'm also hoping the Sixers decide to draft a decent shooting guard: I'm not sure I can handle watching Kyle Korver get destroyed by Richard Hamilton/Tayshaun Prince every time down the court, and the Stones only play the Sixers twice a year.
#13 - New Orleans: Al Thornton. I went to New Orleans for Mardi Gras one time in college. We were lined up on the street behind some baricades to watch the beed throwing parade. All of a sudden this big commotion starts at one end of the parade thats wrapped around the corner. Next thing I know this guy is running for his life in the middle of the baricaded street followed by about 10 cops. He makes around another corner then we heard the crowd go crazy. 30 seconds later the cops are literally parading this guy back through the middle of the street where he'd run and pumping up the crowd. The reason for this story: I think the guy running from the cops was Al Thornton.
#14 - LA Clippers: Nick Young. The Clips keep Young in L.A. They have an above-average front line with Brand and Kaman (although Kaman sucks) but could always use a SG with a semi-reliable game. A point guard wouldn't necessarily be a bad choice here either if Shaun Livingston can't get fitted for a bionic knee.
#15 - Detroit: Rodney Stuckey. I guess he had a promise from the Pistons. I think this is ridiculous, paticularly if Thadeus Young is still available. I agree that the Stones do miss a slasher like Stuckey. If the guy can play more defense than Flip Murray (which can be accomplished by just running to the other end of the court) I guess the pick is OK.
#16 - Washington: Jason Smith. If your content with Eton Thomas and Brendan Haywoode as your frontline, you're an idiot. Smith tested out as one of the most athletic big men in the draft (and by far the most athletic white guy). Of course, Luke Jackson was a former recipient of the most athletic white guy in the draft award. That obvious worked well for him. EDIT: upon reading a little more on Smith I'm fairly certain he's a bust. While athletic, he has Carney hands (ie small) and was inconsistent in a second-tier basketball conference on a second-tier team. Also, if you're going to take an athletic white big...why not take McRoberts here? More accomplished player from a more accomplished conference.
#17 - New Jersey: Thadeus Young. STEAL! I don't care that he probably duplicates Richard Jefferson. Young is probably a year away from producing consistently for the Nets...but Jefferson is a knee injury away from being Luke Walton's gay pool boy. Hell, hope Vince Carter takes off and play the two of them together. Just keep Jefferson away from him in the shower. Also, Mikki Moore is the best. I knew this when he played a string of 10-day contracts for the Pistons. I was planning on he and Zelly Rebraca being the frontline of the future for the Stones until Z's ticker went crazy.
#18 - Golden State: Tiago Splitter. Don Nelson loves Euros/foreignors. Rumor is GS moves up to grab a different foreignor, but if not: they take Splitter. Not sure how he's different from Andre Beidrinis (and I don't care). Hasn't this guy been in the past four drafts? Only Shawn Kemp has tried pulling out more and we know where that got him. Paint me a xenophobe when it come to drafting these guys (and I have a right to be: Darko/Delfino; although Memo worked out), but this guy will add nothing.
#19 - LA Lakers: Josh McRoberts. So Lamar Odom is getting traded somewhere (probably with Andrew Bynum). McRoberts would be a great player to replace him: obviously VERY talented and athletic, but struggles as the focal point of a team. Obviously that won't be a problem in a Kobe-driven Laker team. McRoberts appears bright enough to grasp the triangle offense (when Kobe isnt just heaving by himself), can move without the ball enough for a big man, and finish decently around the rim. He's a big puss, but I think his skill set may be better suited for the NBA than in college.
#20 - Miami: Javaris Crittendon. Big point guard is an instant improvement over White Chocolate. It will probably take him some time to get the swing of the point in the NBA, but a backcourt of 6'5 Crittendon and 6'4 Wade is pretty intimidating. "You ain't written nothin homeboy!"
#21 - Philly: Morris Almond. Almond's mid-range game is reportedly solid (as is his deep shooting), he can contribute immediately and hopefully sit Korver on the bench (ie. play even mildly effective defense).
#22 - Charlotte: Sean Williams. Somebody has to take him in the first round. He blocks shots and runs the floor. It would be real interesting to see him play with Gerald Wallace (should he stay in Charlotte) and Ray Felton. I don't think he helps you win games...but entertainment value both on and off the court ought to be high (get it) with this one.
#23 - Knicks: Rudy Fernandez. This pick is here only b/c Knicks fans would take over MSG and demand the head of Isiah Thomas. This draft is the equivalent of Bastille Day for Knicks faithful.
#24 - Phoenix: Marco Belinelli. See pick #18.
#25 - Utah: Aaron Afflalo. I think Afflalo is going to be a very good player in the league. The guy can knocks down open shots and defends...does both well. Thats about enough to get you in the rotation, and more than enough to get you significant minutes if Gordon Giricek is in that rotation. From Compton.
#26 - Houston: Gabe Pruitt. The Rockets need a point guard who doesn't look (or play) homeless (ie - an upgrade over Rafer Alston). Pruitt has a lot of length and quickness and uses it to his advantage on defense. Not the offensive player some of the other guards are, but with Yao and McGrady he doesn't have to be.
#27 - Detroit: Jerad Dudley. Intangibles guy who gets the most out of his talent and played four years in the Big East. I'm not saying he's a starter, but should be able to give you 10-15 minutes off the bench. Just seems like a player the Pistons would draft (Derrick Byars would work too).
#28 - Spurs: Derrick Byars. Nice replacement for an aging Bruce Bowen and Brent Barry. Byars is a strong body that played four years in a major conference with good statistical results.
#29 - Phoenix: Petteri Koponen. Big PG that has turned a ton of heads in the pre-draft workouts. Steve Nash isnt getting any younger and Koponen still needs seasoning. The Suns may look to make Nash's transition out seemless.
#30 - Philadelphia: Glenn Davis. I don't believe that Philly will keep all of their picks. If they do: why not take the big fella. You have to figure that far less-talented under-sized PFs have experienced success in the league: Craig Smith, Paul Millsaps, Jason Maxiell, Reggie Evans, etc. Why can't Davis? The Sixers can also hope that Samuel Dalembert gets lost forever between Davis buttcheeks during post drills.