Why the NFL Draft is Overrated

If you picked up a Boston Herald this morning, and read Michael Felger's article on the Pats, you would read this passage:

"Here’s another thing: This weekend is overrated. Often, whether a rookie turns out to be a good pick or not depends on the team he goes to, the system he plays in and who’s coaching him. "

Here's my opinion on Felger: He is overly critical of a team that has set the standard for greatness in the salary cap era of mediocrity, speaks in absolutes regarding his 20/20 hindsight of play calling, player decisions and personnel moves, and comes off like a total pompous asshole in many of his articles. He is also, without question, the best Patriots beat writer out there, and raises an interesting point.

I love the NFL Draft. I watch all day Saturday, and admittedly watch more than the average person on Sunday (I know, I'm lame). I get excited/nervous when the Pats are about to pick, and get giddy when the first pick rolls around that no so-called expert has a definitive idea of the player to be taken. But as much as the draft is about player scouting, management intuition, player coachability (add this word to Webster's) and background research, many times the team picking the player has a direct impact on that's player's future.

For example, if Joey Harrington or David Carr played behind an offense line that wasn't so porous, would we be calling them busts? Conversely, if Tom Brady played for the Texans, chances are pretty darn good that we wouldn't be revering him like we do today. Or look at wide receivers - does Marques Colston have as strong an impact without Drew Brees throwing him the ball and Duece/Reggie Bush drawing defensive attention? Would Larry Fitzgerald still be star if he got picked by the Raiders one pick earlier than the Cardinals? Is Joe Montana, well, Joe Montana without Jerry Rice, Roger Craig, etc.? You can go on and on with these hypotheticals.

I understand that certain players have the ability to make the players around them better - but this clearly applies more on the defensive side of the ball than on offense.

On offense, a quarterback may be talented, but he's not going to be the next Peyton Manning without time to throw (see Peyton Manning). A running back may be the next Walter Payton, Earl Campbell or Emmitt Smith, but unless he's got a style like Barry Sanders, i.e. deal with 2-3 yards losses on a handful of plays, and break ankles for an 80-yarder on others, he's not nearly as effective without at least a decent offensive line. As for the offensive line, Felger's example of Robert Gallery is dead on - I'm pretty sure he would not be considered the second coming of Tony Mandarich if you put him in Kansas City or New England. This applies probably more to wide receiver than any position - all the talent in the world is not going to help get you the ball (NOTE to Calvin Johnson...keep praying that someone trades up to get you....Oakland or Detroit will ruin your career before it starts).

As for defense, the team adage still applies, but a supremely talented end rusher or lock down corner (not that we see these anymore) has the ability to make an impact even on a bad defensive unit. While playing next to Marcus Stroud or Richard Seymor on the interior, or Troy Polomalu or Ed Reed in secondary certainly helps, those players are examples of individuals that made their defense instantly better. I think it helps explain why, in ESPN's Draft study, the least risky picks are on the defensive side of the ball. (To view the study, click here - (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/wrapup/070425&sportCat=nfl).

So with the draft coming up tomorrow, unless your team has a solid foundation in place on the offensive side of the ball, pray your team takes a defensive player. Otherwise, your team might be the difference between, say, Adrian Peterson becoming the next Eric Dickerson versus the next Blair Thomas.

A few draft predictions to taint your brain:

(1) JaMarcus Russell goes #1, and will be considered a bust in 3 years;

(2) The Lions trade out of their spot (my guess is with Tampa Bay) and take Joe Thomas. While his honor, Ramjianiasi, may disagree, I don't think he is the second coming of Aaron Gibson;

(3) The Browns will take Brady Quinn....coincidentally, every Browns fans is put on suicide watch

(4) TB takes Calvin Johnson - Jon Gruden's wet dream comes true and Jake Plummer considers un-retiring;

(5) Adrian Peterson goes to the Cards, Edgerrin James fumes, and the Cards O-Line still sucks.

(6) Picks 6-12 -

Washington (Gaines Adams - either Kamerion Wimbley or Andre Wadsworth...can't tell yet);

Minnesota (Jamaal Anderson a.k.a feel good story/bust in waiting);

Atlanta (LaRon Landry a.k.a the next great safety);

Miami (Levi Brown - somehow highly coveted coming from a Penn State line that nearly got 3 QBs killed against Michigan in one game, but I digress);

Houton (Leon Hall - who amazingly gets burned for 3 long TD passes before he even gets to the podium to shake Goodell's hand);

SF (Amobi Okoye - and he'll celebrate by drinking non-alcoholic beverages for two more years...but luckily he'll have all that good pot to smoke out in Cali)

Buffalo (Patrick Willis - I dare you to show me anyone thinking anyone else gets picked here...he will be great, and join the likes of Ray Lewis, Shawn Merriman and Julius Peppers on the list of "People I pray to God I never meet alone in a dark alley")

(7) The rest of the first round is a cluster fuck of random guessing in my opinion, with the exception that Marshawn Lynch goes to GB at 16, the Bengals will pick someone with a sketchy character history, and that the Patriots will draft at least one player I never had on their radar.

(8) In an effort to tie my Michigan and New England roots, one final prediction - the Pats either take David Harris or LaMarr Woodley (my guess in Harris, who they really love) - and everyone five years from now wonders why they didn't have either guy more highly rated.

Enjoy the draft weekend, and watching your favorite team potentially make or break a player's future.